TABLE 3-5: DISNEY´S AMERICA
Level of Service Analysis
2010 "Base" Scenario AM Peak Hour

		Number	2010 Daily	Pk Hr Vol	Pk Hr Vol	Pk Hr-Dir	Level of	Volume
ROADWAY	SEGMENT	of Lanes	Volumes	NB/EB	SB/WB	Volume	Service	Capacity Ratio
I-66	East of Rte 234*	8LD	112,477	6,299	1,800	6,299	D	0.78
I-66	Rte 234 to Rte 234 Bypass	6LD	79,834	4,551	1,357	4,551	D	0.75
I-66	Rte 234 Bypass to US Rte 29	4LD	93,690	5,340	1,593	5,340	D	0.88
I-66	US Rte 29 to US Rte 15	4LD	44,077	2,556	573	2,556	C	0.63
I-66	US Rte 15 to Road "A"	4LD	36,347	2,108	473	2,108	C	0.52
I-66	West of Road "A"	4LD	36,347	2,108	473	2,108	C	0.52
US Rte 29	North of Rt. 234	2L	12,883	1,456	490	1,456	F	1.37
US Rte 29	End of 4-L to Rt. 234	2L	11,257	1,272	428	1,272	F	1.20
US Rte 29	North of I-66 (4-Lane)	4LD	14,158	1,600	538	1,600	D	0.75
US Rte 29	I-66 to Route 55	6LD	56,731	3,404	2,269	3,404	F	1.07
US Rte 29	Route 55 to Thoroughfare	6LD	53,968	3,238	2,159	3,238	F	1.02
US Rte 29	Thoroughfare to US Rte 15	6LD	47,402	2,844	1,896	2,844	E	0.89
US Rte 29	US Rte 15 to Route 215	6LD	57,984	3,479	2,319	3,479	F	1.09
US Rte 15	North of Route 234	4LD	15,277	917	611	917	B	0.43
US Rte 15	Route 234 to Ent #1	4LD	16,352	981	654	981	B	0.46
US Rte 15	Ent#l to Artemus Rd	4LD	16,352	981	654	981	B	0.46
US Rte 15	Artemus Rd to Heathcote Rd	4LD	17,510	1,051	700	1,051	B	0.49
US Rte 15	Heathcote Ext to I-66	4LD	19,496	1,170	780	1,170	C	0.55
US Rte 15	I-66 to Route 55	4LD	11,598	1,176	784	1,176	C	0.55
US Rte 15	Route 55 to Thoroughfare	2L	14,743	885	590	885	E	0.83
US Rte 15	Thoroughfare to US 29	2L	14,666	880	587	880	E	0.83
Route 55	US Rte 29 to Catharpin Rd	2L	8,978	539	359	539	C	0.51
Route 55	Catharpin Rd to US Rte 15	2L	3,237	194	291	291	A	0.27
Route 55	US Rte 15 to Retail Ent	2L	4,440	266	178	266	A	0.25
Route 55	Retail Ent to Thoroughfare	2L	3,435	206	137	206	A	0.19
Route 55	Thoroughfare Rd to County Line	2L	3,924	235	157	235	A	0.22
Route 234	South of Rt 621	6LD	49,475	2,969	1,979	2,969	B	0.93
Route 234	Rt 621 to I-66	6LD	56,056	3,363	2,242	3,363	F	1.06
Route 234	I-66 to US Rte 29	2L	12,095	726	484	726	D	0.68
Route 234	Rte 29 to Rte 659	2L	10,642	426	639	639	C	0.60
Route 234	Rte 659 to Rte 15	2L	4,749	537	180	537	C	0.50
Rte 234 Bypass	I-66 to Balls Ford Rd	4LD	24,489	1,273	955	1,273	A	0.31
Balls Ford Rd (Rte 621)	Rte 234 Bypass to Rte 660	4LD	13,274	796	531	796	B	0.47
Balls Ford Rd (Rte 621)	Rte 660 to Rte 234	4LD	12,472	748	499	748	B	0.44
Balls Ford Rd (Rte 621)	East of Rte 234	4LD	10,738	644	430	644	C	0.57
Waterfall Dr	US Rte l5 to Rte 630	2L	1,930	218	73	218	B	0.39
Waterfall Dr	Rte 630 to Rte 681	2L	412	47	16	47	A	0.08
Waterfall Dr	Rte 68l to Rte 600	2L	721	81	27	81	A	0.14
Rte 681 (Antioch Rd)	Waterfall to Thoroughfare	2L	849	34	51	51	A	0.06
Rte 682 (Thoroughfare)	Rte 681 to Rte 55	2L	151	6	9	9	A	0.01
Rte 682 (Thoroughfare)	Rte 55 to US Rte l5	2L	1,094	44	66	66	A	0.08
Rte 682 (Thoroughfare)	US Rte l5 to Catharpin	2L	1,078	65	43	65	A	0.08
Rte 682 (Thoroughfare)	Catharpin to US Rte 29	2L	2,030	122	81	122	A	0.14
Hearhcote Drive Ext.	US Rte 15 to Catharpin Rd	4LD	3,493	395	133	395	A	0.23
Hearhcote Drive Ext.	Catharpin Rd to US Rte 29	4LD	7,365	832	280	832	B	0.49
Catharpin Rd	Rte 234 to Artemus Rd	2L	1,241	50	74	74	A	0.09
Catharpin Rd	Artemus Rd to Heathcote Dr	2L	6,522	261	391	391	B	0.46
Catharpin Rd	Heathcote Dr to Rte 55	2L	5,012	200	301	301	B	0.36
Rte 705 (Pageland Ln)	Rte 234 to US Rte 29	2L	212	8	13	13	A	0.02
Rte 622 (Grovelon Rd/Featherbed Ln)	Rte 234 to US Rte 29	2L	2,353	94	141	141	B	0.38
Rte 622 (Grovelon Rd/Featherbed Ln)	US Rte 29 to Balls Ford Rd	2L	2,030	81	122	122	A	0.32
Wellington Rd	Balls Ford Rd to Linton Hall	4LD	8,724	349	523	523	A	0.31
Wellington Rd	Linton Hall to US Rte 29	4LD	13,785	551	827	827	B	0.49
Artemus Rd	Catharpin Rd to US Rte l5	2L	1,538	92	62	92	A	0.11

*Includes 6 general use lanes and 2 HOV lanes

As demonstrated in the report Population Growth in Prince William County (the next chapter in this report), the projected population growth is overstated by a substantial margin. Both the Disney´s America Transportation study and the WTC Traffic and Transportation study use a projected growth of 66% from 1996 to 2020, whereas the realistic growth figure is most probably less than 27%. If this overestimate is corrected it has a significant effect on a few road segments which would improve their Level of Service by one grade. In particular the 2 lane portion of Route 17 would improve to LOS D and a portion of Route 234 would improve to LOS C.

In addition to the fact that the population forecasts used in the traffic models derive from the unusually high rates of growth prevalent in the 1980´s, they are overestimates because they do not account for the major trend in business that is now occurring that will allow many more individuals to work at home, or at nearby locations where they can link to the main office. Considering the exponential growth in on-line capabilities, and the certainty of the continued expansion of this capability through fiber optics and satellite linkages, it is inevitable that this significant trend toward home based offices will futher reduce the demand for vehicular commuting.

Conclusions

The Disney´s America Transportation Analysis is the most thoroughly calibrated and most reliable traffic analysis and forecast for Prince William County and the surrounding areas that has been accomplished. The traffic forecasts that it generated for the year 2010 are generally valid for the year 2020 when the anticipated reduction in area population growth rates are taken into account.

The Disney´s America Traffic Analysis did not include a new facility comparable to the Western Transportation Corridor. Nevertheless it did not reveal any levels of north-south traffic not very adequately accommodated by the existing, under construction and planned (completion by 2010) roads. There are no substantial segments of congested traffic on any existing road that would be significantly mitigated by a new facility such as the WTC. This conclusion is true even if the Disney´s America Theme Park is incorporated into the model in the "Baseline+" scenario.

North-south traffic is increased by about 5000 vehicles per day on the 234 bypass, an increase that has a negligible impact on this 4 lane roadway. Traffic increases forecasted for other north-south roads were entirely negligible and had no effect on the "baseline" LOS.

In the "Baseline+" scenario in which Disney´s America attracts the number of visitors and generates the full number of trips anticipated to make it a viable enterprise, only I-66 is significantly impacted as the consequence of increased daily trips.

These results demonstrate that the WTC does not respond to realistic needs based on reliable traffic volume forecasts. Where specific needs have been identified, they are being addressed by less environmentally objectionable, less intrusive, and far less costly alternatives.

On to Part 4: Growth in Prince William County

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