The four reports in this section provide detailed analyses of the Western Transportation Corridor and document the fallacies and flawed studies on which it is based.

Analysis of the WTC Draft Reports. This first report analyzes two key draft memoranda from the MIS: Purpose and Need and Traffic and Transportation. It documents that these studies are fatally flawed for a long list of reasons, the most important of which are:

1. The population growth projections used to forecast traffic are greatly exaggerated.
2. The traffic model used to forecast traffic cannot be properly calibrated, generates unreliable, exaggerated and, in some instances, totally irrational results.
3. A major and critical part of this model has been found to be unusable and was abandoned by other analysts including VDOT´s I-66 MIS team, and traffic study teams in Atlanta, St. Louis, and Hawaii.
4. The WTC does not relieve traffic on I-95, I-66 or any other East-West road. It does not relieve traffic on North-South roads such as Routes 234, the 234 By-Pass, or the Prince William Parkway. ItŐs effect on Routes 15, 17, and 29 is minor.
5. No significant commuting time reduction on any road is provided by the WTC.
6. The forecast long distance traffic is a mere 2700 vehicles per day - far too small to justify the WTC and even that figure is an overestimate.
7. The maximum conceivable WTC truck traffic into Dulles (based on optimistic freight traffic growth projected by Dulles Airport) is less than 100 trucks per day.

A Comparison of the Original and Revised Cost for the WTC is the second document in this series. It documents the astonishing reduction in cost for Right-Of-Way acquisition that was presented recently at a Policy Advisory Committee meeting.

1. Right-Of-Way Acquisition Costs were reduced 80%-90% (a factor of 7.5!)
2. The Right-Of-Way cost, for Option E, originally about $245,100,000 is now only $33,880,000. This incredible reduction has yet to be made available to the public.

Analysis of the Disney´s America Transportation Study and Its Application to the Western Transportation Study is the third document is this series. It demonstrates that no road similar to the Western Transportation Corridor is needed or justified by legitimate traffic studies.

1. The Disney´s America Transportation Study is reliable. It was fully validated and its calibration (agreement with traffic counts) is excellent.
2. Even if the DisneyŐs America Theme Park were built, all of the Hotels and housing constructed to the maximum allowed, and the park achieved the most optimistic level of visitors, the total traffic generated would not justify a road such as the Western Transportation Corridor.
3. The 234 By-Pass will have only 24,000 vehicles per day in 2010, corresponding to Level of Service ´A´, even though it serves virtually the same role as the WTC.

Population Growth in Prince William County has been greatly overstated. This is the fourth major document in this series and reveals that traffic projections have been exaggerated by unrealistic population growth figures that ignore growth rate trends in all areas of Virginia.

1. The rate of growth in PWC has declined from 6% in 1988 to about 2% in 1996.
2. Growth is projected to continue to decline and to stabilize at less than 1%.
3. The more realistic projected growth is 70,000 by 2020. The WTC projected growth is 171,000 (present population is 257,000) - an excess of 100,000!

These reports were prepared by Dr. Robert B. Moler. For comments or questions send your E-Mail message to rbmoler@erols.com.

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