Future Energy eNews
IntegrityResearchInstitute.org Nov. 7, 2004
1)Nuclear Solutions Lost in Ambiguity - Probably the most in-depth article about the late Paul Brown company's nuclear remediation process and its fate.
2)Laser Photo-transmutation of Nuke Waste Proves Brown was Right - Same process (see COFE 1999) that Paul Brown invented ten years ago has now been done on a table-top to make 20 minute half-life waste.
3) PulsedEM-Probe Device Repairs Tissue - Glen Gordon MD gives a rousing presentation which included a story of his reversal from heart-transplant patient to cross-country bicycler!
4)Gravity Anomaly with Pioneer Spacecraft - Near the edge of our solar system, gravity becomes weird.
5)Hydrogen Economy Looks Out of Reach - British conclude a million wind turbines would be needed to fuel hydrogen vehicles.
6)Nanotechnology for Energy - Possible uses reported at the First Advanced Nanotech Conference
7)Life After the Oil Crash - If no breakthrough in fueless energy is made in 5 years this new book, and its quote from Vice President Cheney, is probably right.
8)Valone Reports on a Myriad of Future Energy Alternatives - Conference lecture summary posted on a news service website.
1) Nuclear Solutions Lost In Ambiguity
Mary La Rosa, 26 August 2004http://lark.phoblacht.net/nuclearambiglarosa.html
Ambiguity: Mordechai Vanunu; a lawyer in Israel representing Dimona employees; two solutions for nuclear waste that give us alternative viable energy; a portable nuclear weapons detection system since 1999; blackmail and extortion; another dead scientist and the closing of the National Lab in Los Alamos
WhileMordechai Vanunu awaits further reprisals, perhaps further punishments for what he continues to declare proudly his act of good conscience, a dynamic new company in the same country that does not want him but also does not want to allow him to leave, has acquired a contract to clean up some of the nuclear mess for which Vanunu has sacrificed almost 20 years of his life. This nuclear clean up does not begin in the Negev, but will take place in Chernobyl and is projected to be only the beginning of an enormous projected profit as well as long awaited remedy for that which Vanunu has been trying to get our attention and that which his government has denied exists yet alone has ever acknowledged as a radioactive problem.
Similar to Mr Vanunu's ambiguous existence as "free" man, and similar to the Israeli government's position on its nuclear weapons count and policy about its count, Israel's nuclear waste follows in much the same ambiguity, or perhaps until this future Plasma-Gasification-Melting process can begin to work an ambiguous miracle at home as well contracts abroad.
Ambiguity is a word that serves political agendas better than it does justice to individual citizens, unless of course you live in a country where you are innocent until proven guilty. Ambiguity in Israel has not afforded Mordechai Vanunu any benefit, either in benefit of doubt for his good conscience or benefit of justice for his completion of eighteen and a half years' retribution, most of which was spent in solitary confinement with ongoing torture provided by an ambiguous prison authority.
Mordechai Vanunu's unique case as a whistleblower in a country that seems not capable of even self scrutiny or criticism, further challenges that government's policies of ambiguity about a variety of legal, moral and ethical issues. But other Israeli citizens also make such challenges and continue to suffer from ambiguity in how a government assumes or will not assume its responsibility in assurances and /or compensation for complete, in depth reportage on public safety and illnesses that have predominated among those who have worked or lived near nuclear reactor activities.
Israel’s Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) has always denied any negligence or culpability with regards to radiation levels and the hazards of working with nuclear energy. And the AEC in Israel makes very good use of the state’s policy of ambiguity by avoiding any sort of inspections while continuing to deny any problems from the past have ever existed. The average citizen is left to wonder about exposure and the official denials, especially as they become ill due to sicknesses associated with radiation.
"The reactor said I did not work in radioactive elements but my medical records show I had uranium in my urine," said one former employee from Dimona.
In 1999, while Mordechai Vanunu was still languishing in his prison cell, a Jerusalem lawyer namedReuven Laster questioned the authority of the state in its denial that any problem exists and began to represent groups of people who worked at the reactor in the early years, fifties, sixties and seventies.
This American born lawyer has a record for championing the environment as well as individuals who suffer from health hazards within the environment. Mr Laster represents clients who press for accountability of official but ambiguous policies involved in the failure to monitor workers who were specifically active in chemical or radioactive accidents.
Obviously,trying to prove a link between the exposure and the illness has been extremely difficult for any kind of legal procedure and even after a struggle to obtain a review of all the medical records from the reactor during certain periods of time, Mr Laster found various years 'suspiciously' deleted. Now partner in a larger law firm, this advocate continues to pursue justice for employees who worked at risk at Dimona where exposure to harm seems to have led to cancers and/or an early deaths. The number of clients he represents is growing but there are those who will never know just and fair compensation, because those in government who have been silent choose to remain silent and without the good conscience required to afford justice to those who have suffered illness and death by ambiguity and silence of government officials. Recent evidence ofmigratory birds seems to point to the suffering of wild life as well.
In the midst of this dismal guessing about exactly how harmful old nuclear reactors are, comes such bright news and such hope for the world at large that one simply must pause and consider why hasn't there been a celebration in all mainstream medias around the world? One can also only wonder why entire countries and governments do not sell off every other project in order to get some clean up sooner rather than too later. Add to the discovery a way of turning harmful waste products into an energy source other than oil!
A process called PGM, Plasma-Gasification-Melting works the remedy by using plasma (ionized gas) in a reactor in order to melt down the radioactive materials. A fairly new (2002) Israeli company called Environmental Energy Resources, Ltd. (EER) has developed the PGM method for changing nuclear waste into a variety of useful byproducts such as electricity. The contract for the Chernobyl clean up is spread over 20-25 years with annual gross revenues estimated presently at $30-35 million. EER is under management of Itschak Shrem, one of Israel’s top financial wizards of venture capital and a partner in the premiere investment house, SFK (Shrem, Fudim and Kelner). Shrem has plans to raise money from international sources as well as homeland.
According to Isra Cast Technology News, "The PGM process was originally designed and developed over twenty years ago at the Russian Research Center, 'Kurchatov Institute'. The development and adaptation of the PGM Technology involves active participation of Russian scientists who are among the original developers of this technology."
The process by which to change radioactive waste into something less harmful, however, could NOT have come as revelation to the Institute of Industrial Mathematics in Beersheva Israel, where previous to Environmental Energy Resources, IIM had worked out a deal to lease its technologies to an American nuclear physicist called Dr Paul M. Brown who had developed a process with similar end results called GHR in 2001. GHR tritium removal technology involves the irradiation of specific radioactive isotopes to force the emission of a neutron, thus producing an isotope of reduced atomic mass.
On February 28th, 2001, Los Alamos National Laboratory also entered into a support contract with Paul Brown's company Nuclear Solutions. In November 14 of 2001 The Corporate Social Responsibility Newswire Service reported, "Japanese Scientists Corroborate Nuclear Waste Remediation Technology Owned by Nuclear Solutions" and confirmed the viability of photonuclear transmutation for nuclear waste remediation and the development of a photonuclear-based system for transmutation of nuclear waste and safe, clean generation of electricity.
Then in March 14, 2002 Dr Brown announced that a deal was made with Israel's Institute of Industrial Mathematics that involved the treatment of radioactive water (separate and different from GHR).
"Upon conclusion of the commercialization phase, which is expected to last 12 to 15 months, IIM and NSOL will aggressively pursue the filling of worldwide patents. IIM will own the intellectual property and NSOL will have the exclusive worldwide rights for a period of 20 years."
Dr Brown and the team at Nuclear Solutions, seemed poised in leading the clean up of nuclear waste and yet the company was troubled financially and Dr Brown was under personal attack. Tragically on April 7, 2002 Dr Brown was dead at 47 from a car accident about which there still lurks the previous threats he had received over a period of time just prior to the accident. Dr Brown's death put an odd tilt to the company's plans for the future and the company took another spiral plunge down. The company AND Dr Brown appear to have been victims of criminal extortion and racketeering via the machinations of an Egyptian born financial analyst later charged in a nationwide stock swindle that involved FBI agents and FBI computers and who was also under suspicions for having made large amount of stock transactions just prior to 911.
Lynn Wingate, an FBI agent assigned to the bureau's Albuquerque office; Jeffrey Royer, a former Oklahoma City agent who resigned late last year; and short-seller Amr "Tony" Elgindy were among five charged in a securities fraud indictment unsealed in federal court in Brooklyn, N.Y. In exchange for money, the two FBI agents used confidential databases to provide Elgindy and other co-conspirators with information about publicly traded companies, the indictment said. Elgindy then spread negative information about the companies on his Web site and to subscribers of his e-mail newsletter, InsideTruth.com, thus bringing down the price of the stock. According to the indictment, a FBI agent searched the agency's confidential National Crime Information Center database and discovered a "criminal" history of a top executive for a company called Nuclear Solutions. The same day, Elgindy began sending e-mail calling the executive "a convicted felon", he then sold the company's stock short.
The indictment accused Messrs. Royer and Elgindy of repeatedly short selling stock. Mr Elgindy is also charged with extortion. There is no mention why a company directly involved with nuclear waste would be highlighted for such an operation as Elgindy had going but Mr. Elgindy spread info that Dr Brown was a convicted felon and the stock sold short six times. Mr Elgindy continued to personally threaten Dr Brown. But by the time Elgindy and the FBI agents were arrested, Brown was no longer alive to tell a different tale.
Fortunately for Nuclear Solutions, just one month before his death, John Dempsey came on board. Dr Brown, while still under threat, announced the appointment of John Dempsey. Mr Dempsey was a graduate of the Naval academy and had served as a commissioned officer onboard nuclear submarines with an area of expertise in nuclear engineering followed by a 21 year old career at Bechtel. Just before his untimely death, Brown made Dempsey executive vice president and chief operating officer.
Did John Dempsey's appointment herald the trouble or anticipate it? How significant was his past at Bechtel?
Since Brown's death, an office in Moscow has been opened. There is a "new" scientist at Nuclear Solutions named Boris Muchnik. He not only replaced Dr Brown but another original team member, Dr. Qi Ao, as former Vice President of Research and Development. Dr Muchnik's prior record of technology had less to do with nuclear physics claim and more to do with the invention of recordable and erasable cd and laser technology. In lauding the rising company, medias such as CNet News have made no mention of Brown and his life long creative effort to solve the problems of nuclear waste and his creation of nuclear solutions.
Meanwhile, the National Labs at Los Alamos, where Dr Brown had serious relationship, especially in discussing his betavoltaic batteries, has now suspended all activities since it is in the throes of a security scandal proving how negligent and lax the lab has been with regards to equipment gone missing, credit card bills and now more recently, non existent but missing disks and the unauthorized presence of international scientists allowed access to materials of high level security concerns. In other words, the National Lab at Los Alamos, dealing in particular with nuclear energy and weaponry has placed US national security at grave risk before, during and after the 911 attacks via careless that merited its closing and reassessment.
Most of Dr Brown's life and creative talent had a practical focus in the present and dealt almost exclusively with the recycling of nuclear waste and including radioactive water remediation. But it is astounding that he also created a portabledetection system for nuclear weapons. This particular invention was created well before his death but only now is being featured as important industry.
Since1999, he and his work was known to First International Conference On Future Energy hosts in Washington, DC (Integrity Research Institute).
However, he simply could not get the backing, nor depend upon a government to protect him from FBI computers and extortion. Questions remain but will probably fade fast into the first couple of million dollars in profit that Nuclear Solutions potentially will be earning in the near future. The company will probably do every bit as well as its Israeli counterpart, EER, even if it did not get a Chernobyl contract. After all we do not need Vanunu's commitment to tell us all that there seems to be enough dangerous nuclear waste for everyone to make money.
Dr Paul Brown's commitment to solution for a better environment remains a life's work lost in the ambiguity of business deals and political intrigue.
Jerusalem lawyer, Reuven Laster's ongoing advocacy for the environment and victims' rights struggles against the persistent ambiguity presented by a government that lacks moral and ethical concerns about its citizens' well being
Mordechai Vanunu's good conscience and less than free life continues to be currently threatened by ambiguity. Despite the advocacy of faithful supporters in Israel and the international community at large, Vanunu remains under restrictions meant to keep 20 year old policies and wrongs camaflouged as present security risks.
"I have no more secrets to tell" ..but YOU do!, YOU do! seems to keep coming from Vanunu.
Full links and referenceshttp://lark.phoblacht.net/nuclearambiglarosa.html
2) Laser-driven photo-transmutation of I-129 -- a long-lived nuclear waste product
Ledingham, et al., J. Phys. D: Appl. Phys. 36 (2003) L79-L82 http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/0022-3727/36/18/L01/d3_18_L01.pdf
K W D Ledingham1,6, J Magill2, P McKenna1, J Yang1, J Galy2, R Schenkel2, J Rebizant2, T McCanny1, S Shimizu1, L Robson1, R P Singhal3, M S Wei4, S P D Mangles4, P Nilson4, K Krushelnick4, R J Clarke5 and P A Norreys5
Received 12 August 2003
Published 3 September 2003
Intense laser–plasma interactions produce high brightness beams of gamma rays, neutrons and ions and have the potential to deliver accelerating gradients more than 1000 times higher than conventional accelerator technology, and on a tabletop scale. This paper demonstrates one of the exciting applications of this technology, namely for transmutation studies of long-lived radioactive waste. We report the laser-driven photo-transmutation of long-lived129I with a half-life of 15.7 million years to 128I with a half-life of 25 minutes. In addition, an integrated cross-section of 97±40 mbarns for the reaction 129I(γ ,n)128I is determined from the measured ratio of the (γ ,n) induced 128I and 126I activities. The potential for affordable, easy to shield, tabletop laser technology for nuclear transmutation studies is highlighted.
Complete article is available online in pdf format fromhttp://www.iop.org/EJ/article/0022-3727/36/18/L01/d3_18_L01.pdf - Ed. note
3) Glen A. Gordon, MD, Speaks on Pulsed Electromagnetic Healing Developments
Review bySterling D. Allan, T. Cullen, Susan Carter
Dr. Gordon spoke on exploring the limits of pulsed electromagnetic healing. This technology uses very fast (8 nanosecond) pulses of electromagnetic energy to help the body heal. Dr. Gordon stated he was the first physician in the US to use pulsed electromagnetic fields (PEMF) on soft tissues in humans. The technology has been studied by NASA at the LBJ Center and written about by Tom Goodwin. Another quoted reference was The Body Electric by Robert O. Becker. Since the 1980’s, PEMFs have been used in Russia and Hungary and now are used worldwide. The United States is the only major industrial country not currently using PEMFs.
NASA Study (Excerpts)
"The up-regulation of these genes is in no manner marginal (1.7-8.4 logs) with gene sites for collagen production and growth the most actively stimulated."
"We have clearly demonstrated the bioelectric/biochemical potentiation of nerve stimulation and restoration in humans as a documented reality".
"The most effective electromagnetic field for repair of trauma was square wave with a rapid rate of change (dB/dt) which saw cell growth increased up to 4.0 times."
They further noted that "slowly varying (millisecond pulse, sine wave) or non varying DC (CW lasers, magnets) had little to no effect."
Final Recommendation: "One may use square wave EM fields with rapid rate of change for":
*the first study to clarify technologies and efficacy parameters for tissue growth and restoration For brevity we reduced the 33-page technical paper to the above summary which we feel represents the essence of that communication.
Link to NASA Study: http://ston.jsc.nasa.gov/collections/TRS/_techrep/TP-2003-212054.pdf
Dr. Gordon's website
Conference Event Sponsors
Robert Roy Britt Senior Science Writer, SPACE.com Oct. 18, 2004
Imagine the weight of a nagging suspicion that what held your world together, a constant and consistent presence you had come to understand and rely on, wasn't what it seemed. That's how scientists feel when they ponder gravity these days. For more than three centuries, the basics of gravity were pretty well understood. Newton described the force as depending on an object's mass. Though it extends infinitely, gravity weakens with distance (specifically, by the inverse square of the distance). Einstein built on these givens in developing his theory of relativity. Then more than a decade ago a researcher noticed something funny about two Pioneer spacecraft that were streaming toward the edge of the solar system. They weren't where they should have been. Something was holding the probes back, according to calculations of their paths, speed and how the gravity of all the objects in the solar system -- and even a tiny push provided by sunlight -- ought to act on them. Now scientists have proposed a new mission to figure out what's up with gravity.
Pioneer 10 and 11 launched in 1972 and 1973. Today each is several billion miles away, heading in opposite directions out of the solar system. The discrepancy caused by the anomaly amounts to about 248,500 miles (400,000 kilometers), or roughly the distance between Earth and the Moon. That's how much farther the probes should have traveled in their 34 years, if our understanding of gravity is correct. (The distance figure is an oversimplification of the actual measurements, but more on that in a moment.) Scientists are quick to suggest the Pioneer anomaly, as they call it, is probably caused by the space probes themselves, perhaps emitting heat or gas. But the possibilities have been tested and modeled and penciled out, and so far they don't add up. Which leaves open staggering possibilities that would force wholesale reprinting of all physics books: Invisible dark matter is tugging at the probes Other dimensions create small forces we don't understand Gravity works differently than we think
Slava Turyshev at NASA (news - web sites)'s Jet Propulsion Laboratory is one of a handful of scientists who wrestle mentally with the Pioneer anomaly every day. He is not paid to work specifically on the problem, so he has to juggle the disturbing thought with his regular research, which involves other aspects of gravity and, significantly, whether theories that explain the glue of the whole universe might one day match neatly with those describing the invisible, subatomic world.
"I have been working on [the Pioneer anomaly] for more than 11 years now, and was never funded to do this job," Turyshev tells SPACE.com. "I guess this says a lot about my devotion to solve this mystery."
Data from the Galileo and Ulysses spacecraft suggest the anomaly may have affected them, too. But neither has been far enough from the Sun -- the dominant source of gravity in the solar system -- to firmly distinguish any possible discrepancy from noise in the data, Turyshev says. Galileo was crashed into Jupiter last year, and Ulysses will never go farther than it has. That leaves two data points -- one from each Pioneer craft. Turyshev pointedly considers the pair as one data point, so as not to inflate the case for strange new physics. NASA engineers have made their last communications with the Pioneer probes, so the two table-sized robots are carrying the unsolved mystery silently to the stars.
The Pioneer anomaly was discovered by John Anderson, also of JPL, in the 1980s. For years he didn't publish what he'd noticed. Then he discussed it with physicist Michael Martin Nieto at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Nieto says he "almost fell off my chair." Nieto jumped into the investigation, and the two were later joined by Turyshev. They dug deeper into the data, even tracking down retired NASA scientists for some of it. Unraveling the enigma will require a new mission, the researchers say. NASA, however, doesn't have such a project on its agenda and has not expressed much interest in one. Europeans, for reasons both historic and having to do with a current strong desire to better grasp gravity, seem more interested in investigating the problem.
So Anderson's team recently proposed to the European Space Agency a "mission to explore the Pioneer anomaly" using the latest accelerometers and advanced navigation methods. All possible sources of onboard radiation would be eliminated in "the most precisely tracked spacecraft ever to go into deep space," the group writes in the September issue of Physics World magazine.
The idea has "very high chances" of being chosen for future study, Turyshev thinks. If funded, it could launch as early as 2015. If the mission were to find a natural, cosmic cause to the Pioneer anomaly, the revelation would rank right up there with other apple-on-the-head moments in the history of physics. "If the anomaly is due to some new physical mechanism, this discovery would have a truly fundamental impact," Turyshev said.
One candidate isdark matter. This unknown stuff seems to infuse the universe and, though invisible, has a collective gravitational impact greater than all known matter, including stars and planets. Dark matter is inferred to exist because, without it, galaxies would fly apart. Every galaxy must be loaded with the stuff, astronomers conclude, based on how stars are bound to orbit the centers of the galaxies.
But dark matter's effects have been presumed to operate across large expanses, both within and between galaxies. There is no evidence of it controlling anything on a scale so small as our solar system. Another idea is that gravity tugs slightly harder at things farther away. That radical suggestion, if proved true, would force a modification of Einstein's general theory of relativity and might eliminate dark matter as a player.
Yet one more exotic possibility: Dimensions exist beyond the four we know (three directions and time). Models ofstring theory propose that higher dimensions could provide weak forces that act in ways we don't yet comprehend.
No fancy theory in existence, however, properly explains the Pioneer data.
The Pioneer anomaly is not actually a measure of how far the Pioneer probes did or didn't travel. Instead, scientists bounced microwave signals off each probe and noticed an unexpected drift in the Doppler frequency as the probes got farther away. The technique is akin to noting the sound change in a siren as an ambulance races first toward you, and then away from you. The Doppler effect is a shortening or lengthening of sound waves (or microwaves, or any waves) forced by an object's movement. The drift showed that the Pioneers were being accelerated toward the Sun (or, rather, decelerated in their movement away from the Sun) by a tiny but inexplicable amount. The level of drift is equal to a gravitational effect 10 billion times weaker than the pull of Earth. Though tiny, the signal is clear, other scientists agree. Despite 11 years of devotion to the mystery, Turyshev is the first to admit that the "most obvious explanation" would be an unknown onboard effect. Perhaps excessive internal heat or leaks of propulsion gas are providing a wee bit of thrust that adds up over the years. Yet despite a lot of testing, "no unambiguous, onboard systematic problem has been discovered," he said. "This inability to explain the anomalous acceleration of the Pioneer spacecraft with conventional physics has contributed to the growing discussion about its origin." Even if the anomaly is caused by the Pioneer probes themselves, figuring it out will be useful says Turyshev, who is the proposal leader for the U.S. group. "Finding it would help us to build a better spacecraft for the needs of fundamental physics," he said. "These craft would much more stable, quieter and would allow us to go even deeper in our quests of studying the fabric of fundamental and gravitational physics."
Abstract for a presentation given at the
- Soaring oil prices have recently put resource issues back in the public eye. In fact, conventional technology is exhausting its resource base at an accelerating rate, an acceleration exacerbated by the revolution of rising expectations in the less-developed world due to the global communications revolution. Nanotechnology is the only way to provide something like a sustainable First World standard of living for the entire world. Fortunately, furthermore, many resource-related nanotechnology applications involve nanostructured materials rather than full molecular machines and so are accessible in the near term.
7) Life After the Oil Crash
Matt Savinar, 10/20/2004,http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respectedgeologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservat! ive individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."
The ramifications of Peak Oil are so serious, one of George W. Bush’s energy advisors, investment banker Matthew Simmons has stated, "The situation is desperate. This is the world’s biggest serious question," while comparing the crisis to the perfect storm: "If you read The Perfect Storm, where a freak storm materializes out of the convergence of three weather systems, our energy crisis results from the same phenomenon."
Simmons’ investment bank,Simmons and Company International, is considered the most reputable and reliable energy investment bank in the world.
Given Simmons’ background and reputation, what he has to say about the situation is truly terrifying. For instance, in anAugust 2003 interview with From the Wilderness publisher Michael Ruppert, Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded:
It is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians have no Plan B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the world’s 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our health — greater than anyone could ever imagine.
In May 2004, Simmons explained that in order for demand to be appropriately controlled,the price of oil would have to reach $182 per barrel. With oil prices at $182 per barrel, gas prices would likely rise to $7.00 per gallon.
If you want to ponder just how devastating oil prices in the $180 range will be for the US economy, consider the fact thatone of Osama Bin-Laden’s goals has been to force oil prices to $200 per barrel.
Simmons has been sounding the alarm for years. For a while, he was a lone "voice in the wilderness." In the past year or so, however, many experts have begun echoing his sentiments. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, the vice-president of the Iranian National Oil Company has stated:
On a similar note, the respected Washington-based consulting firm PFC Energy Group recently released a report predicting a coming "energy doomsday."
Say what you will about George W. Bush, he has been very open with the American people about this particular issue. In May 2001,George W. Bush went on the record as saying, "What people need to hear loud and clear is that we’re running out of energy in America."
Vice-President Dick Cheney publicly acknowledged the reality of Peak Oil in 1999 when he stated:
Theoil-producing nations of the world are currently pumping at full capacity yet they are only producing 82.5 million barrels per day. Raising production by 50 million barrels per day is essentially impossible. Cheney's remarks were thus a tacit admission of the severity and imminence of the peak.
Executives from Big Oil have publicly acknowledged the scope of the coming crisis as well. In 2003, Exxon Mobil president Jon Thompson stated:
By 2015, we will need to find, develop, and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equivalent to eight out of every 10 barrels
being produced today. In addition, the cost associated with providing this additional oil and gas is expected to be considerably
more than what the industry is now spending. Equally daunting is the fact that many of the most promising prospects are far from major markets - some in regions that lack even basic infrastructure. Others are in extreme climates, such as the Arctic, that present extraordinary technical challenges.
In October 2003, Michael Moore released the book, Dude, Where’s My Country? Chapter three of the book, "Oil’s Well that Ends Well," was dedicated to the comingpost-oil die-off.
The Saudi's have a saying about the situation,"My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane. His son will ride a camel."
Former UK Environmental Minister Michael Meacherwas equally frank, when he stated, "It is hard to envisage the effects of a radically reduced oil supply on a modern economy or society."
The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running. In this regard, the ramifications of Peak Oil for our civilization are similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body. The human body is 70 percent water. The body of a 200 pound man thus holds 140 pounds of water. Because water is so crucial to everything the human body does, the man doesn't need to lose all 140 pounds of water weight before collapsing due to dehydration. A loss of as little as 10-15 pounds of water may be enough to kill him.
In a similar sense, an oil-based economy such as ours doesn't have to deplete its entire reserves of oil before it begins to collapse. Once the shortfall between demand and supply gets beyond 10-15 percent, all hell is going to break lose.
To understand the nature of the coming crisis, you need to understand what geologists call"Hubbert's Peak," named for the Shell geologist Dr. Marion King Hubbert. In 1956, Hubbert accurately predicted that US domestic oil production would peak in 1970. He also predicted global production would peak in 1995, which it would have had the politically created oil shocks of the 1970s not delayed the peak for about 10-15 years.
Oil will not just "run out" because all oil production follows a bell curve. This is true whether we're talking about an individual field, a country, or on the planet as a whole.
Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.
In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2000 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2020 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population in 2020 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, economies will crumble, andresource wars will explode.
Fortunately, we have a massive amount of oil located in the oil sands up in Canada and down in Venezuela. Unfortunately, these oil sands projects are projected to peak in 2020 at about 4-5 million barrels of oil per day. That's not much oil considering we currently need 82.5 million barrels per day and are already losing over 1 million barrels per day due to depletion.
Some people believe oil is actually a renewable resource continually produced by an "abiotic" process deep in the Earth. As emotionally appealing as this theory may be,it ignores most common sense and all scientific fact.
The oil companies don't give this theory the slightest bit of credence even though they are more motivated than anybody to find an unlimited source of oil as each company's shareholder value is based largely on how much oil it holds in reserve.
Many politicians and economists insist that there are alternatives to oil and that we can "invent our way out of this." Physicists and geologists tell us an entirely different story. The politicians and economists are selling us 30-year old economic and political fantasies, while the physicists and geologists are telling us scientific and mathematical truth. Rather than accept the high-tech myths proposed by the politicians and economists, its time for you to start asking critical questions about the so called "alternatives to oil" and facing some hard truths about energy.
Unfortunately, since most people see and hear only what they want to see and hear, the politicians and economists are lauded while the physicists and geologists are ignored.
While there are many technologically viablealternatives to oil, there are none (or combination thereof) that can supply us with anywhere near the amount of net-energy required by our modern monetary system and industrial infrastructure.
If we have have a few dozen technological miracles, unprecedented political will and bipartisan cooperation, massive amounts of investment capital, and about 25-50 years of peace and prosperity to retrofit the world's 40 trillion dollar per year industrial infrastructure, we might be able to get the energy equivalent of 3-5 billion barrels of oil per year from alternative sources.
That's a tremendous amount of oil - about as much as the entire world used per year during World War II, but it's not enough. Unfortunately, the world currently needs over 30 billion barrels of oil per year to support economic growth. That number will only increase as time goes on due to population growth, debt servicing, and the industrialization of countries like China and India.
Furthermore, people tend to think ofalternatives to oil as somehow independent from oil. In reality, the alternatives to oil are more accurately described as "derivatives of oil." It takes massive amounts of oil and other scarce resources to locate and mine the raw materials (silver, copper, platinum, uranium, etc.) necessary to build solar panels, windmills, and nuclear power plants. It takes more oil to construct these alternatives and even more oil to distribute them, maintain them, and adapt current infrastructure to run on them.
Plant based alternatives like ethanol and biodiesel are also entirely dependent on an abundant supply of oil asmodern agriculture is entirely oil-powered. All pesticides are derived from oil while all fertilizers are derived from natural gas, which is also running out. As oil production declines, so will our ability to produce food and agricultural-based alternatives to oil.
It's not just transportation and agriculture that are entirely dependent on abundant, cheap energy.Modern medicine, water distribution, and national defense are each entirely powered by oil and petroleum derived chemicals. Most consumer goods are made with plastic, which is derived from oil.
Technologies such as thermal depolymerization are promising as solutions to our landfill problems, but since most of the feedstock (such as tires and turkey guts) requires high-grade oil to make in the first place, it is not a solution to a permanent oil shortage. Furthermore, there is only one thermal deploymerization plant online and it is producing less than 500 barrels of oil per day. While the technology certainly deserves investment, it is both reliant on oil and it is simply "far too little, way too late" for it to save you from the devastating economic effects of the coming energy famine.
While there are some promising technological advancements in areas such as solar-nanotechnology, even the scientists at the forefront of these technologies admit we need a series of "miracles" to prevent a total collapse of industrial civilization.
In other words, the chances of technology saving you from the coming economic collapse are about the same as the chances of another virgin-birth taking place.
For you or any other "average" person to expect high-tech solutions to save you from the economic effects of Peak Oil is akin to a person living in sub-Saharan Africa to expect high-tech medical treatments to save their community from the effects of AIDS. These treatments are available to people like Magic Johnson, not the folks in Africa. Likewise, many of the recent technological advancements in energy production and efficiency may be available and affordable to people like George W. Bush and Warren Buffet or agencies like the Department of Defense, but they aren't going to be available or affordable to the average person.
The idea that technology is going to save you from this crisis is downright silly. Technology uses energy. It does not produce it. Here in the 21st century, we have no shortage of technology. We have a shortage of energy. As you are probably well aware, the price of technology has been plummeting while the price of oil has been skyrocketing.
Besides, most forms of technology require tremendous amounts of oil in the first place. The average desktop computer, for instance, consumes 10 times its weight in fossil fuels during its construction alone.
On a similar note,the average car consumes 120,000 gallons of fresh water just during its construction. Unfortunately, the world is in the midst of a severe water crisis that is only going to get worse in the years to come. Scientists are already warning us to get ready for massive "water wars."
Consequently, the only way for us to replace our current fleet of gas-guzzling SUVs with fuel-efficient hybrids is to kill 2-3 billion people, steal their fresh water, and use it to construct a new generation of high-tech cars.
The widespread use of technologies such as the internal combustion engine and the air conditioner is what got us into this situation. It is thus unlikely that even more technology will get us out of it.
Even if you can currently afford these technologies, it won't help you much since the majority of the population can't. Got solar panels on your roof and a brand-new hybrid car? Great, but since most people can't afford those things, the economy is still going to collapse.
The US economy is particularly vulnerable to the coming oil shortages. As the most indebted nation in the world, the US is completely dependent on strong economic growth just to pay the interest on its debts. This is as true for individual citizens as it is for corporations and governments. A declining oil/energy supply means the economy can't grow which means individuals, corporations, and governments can't pay off their debts, which means economic anarchy is on the way.
Furthermore, unlike nations in Europe, the US has built it's entire infrastructure and way of life under the assumption oil would always be cheap and plentiful. Since that is no longer the case, the US economy is in even more trouble than the economies of nations like the UK, Germany, Spain, and France.
So even in the best-case scenario,we're looking at an international financial meltdown and a collapse of the value of US dollar so severe that the Great Depression will look like the "good ole days."
The financial dislocations wrought by the coming oil shocks will plunge the world into a series of resource wars and"currency insurgencies" unlike anything we can imagine.
Before you get too worried, rest assured thatthe US government has been aware of Peak Oil since at least 1977 and has been actively planning for this crisis for over 30 years. Three decades of careful, plotting analysis has yielded the following 2-step plan:
If you’re like 99 percent of the people reading this letter, you had never heard of the term "Peak Oil" until today. I had not heard of the term until a year ago. Since learning about Peak Oil, I’ve had my view of the world, and basic assumptions about my own individual future, turned completely upside-down.
A little about myself: In November 2003, I was a 25-year-old law school graduate who found out he had just passed the California Bar Exam. I was excited about a potentially long and prosperous career in the legal profession, getting married, having kids, contributing to my community, and living the "American Dream." Since learning about Peak Oil, those dreams have been radically altered.
In January 2004, I published this site on the web. As of October 20, 2004 it has received over 1 million visits and 3 million page views. In May 2004 I published a book, The Oil Age is Over: What to Expect as the World Runs Out of Cheap Oil, 2005-2050 as a tool to convince my friends and family of the need to begin preparing for the coming energy famine. Below you will find selected adaptations from that book. If you would like a copy of the book, I've made them available via my online store.
I must warn you, the information contained inThe Oil Age is Over is not for the faint of heart or the easily disturbed. Whether you’re 25 or 75, an attorney or an auto mechanic, what you will read will likely shake the foundations of your life and irrevocably alter your world outlook.
byT. Cullen and Susan M. Carter, PORTLAND, OREGON, USA, Pure Energy Systems News, http://www.pureenergysystems.com/events/conferences/2004/NewEnergyMovement/6900056_ThomasValone/index.html
The travesty is that the global warming we are experiencing is entirely unnecessary -- if we would but just pursue these alternatives that have been available for so long.
Report on his lecture at the New Energy Movement Conference, Sept. 25, 2004, Portland, Oregon, USA.
Tom Valone, President of Integrity Research Institute (IRI), speaking at the New Energy Movement conference was a powerhouse of knowledge and facts and gave a thorough overview of where we are currently at with energy needs and where we could go in the future to meet those needs.
His first blockbuster fact caught the audience’s attention immediately; 85% of energy today comes from the combustion of dead fossils, forcing the world’s atmosphere to overheat. We are likely seeing the results of global warming in our weather such as the four hurricanes in Florida.
Valone commented that Hubbert’s Peak – the peak of oil production – is right on the projected mark for the US. Most alarming is that the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is at three hundred parts per million (ppm), the highest it has been in 400,000 years and may reach six hundred ppm by 2050.
Further evidence of global warming are the liquid lakes at the North Pole. The ice cap is rapidly disappearing, which effects the reflected solar radiation, causing other global weather changes. Valone warned ominously that a sixth to eighty percent reduction in carbon emissions is required to stop global warming.
The most frustrating fact of all, he stated, was that two thirds of all the electricity produced in the US is wasted.
IRI is researching the following energy solutions:
• atmospheric electricity
• quantum vacuum zero point
• space propulsion energy
• magnetic motors
Ben Franklin almost had it clear back in the 1700’s. Electrostatic motors have been known about since the beginning of this country. One motor has been operating for eighty-six years and counting. Reference was made to the American Journal of Physics, 1971, pg. 778, regarding the 200 Gigawatt potential in the atmosphere.
The most promising technology has been known about nearly one hundred years: Tesla’s Wardencliff tower and scalar waves. Valone has researchers that have analyzed every part and verified each component of Tesla’s system to broadcast power worldwide. IRI is currently working to rebuild a Wardenclyffe Tower.
Nuclear power is about more than just nuclear power plants. Valone told the NEM audience about nuclear batteries and the work by Betavoltaics and Nuclear Solutions. He mentioned Paul Brown’s patents for extracting energy safely from radioactive materials without nuclear power plants.
A very promising development in the works is the photo-remediation of nuclear waste, and a method of using iodine to produce power. The studies in this field are showing one Megawatt in produces twenty Megawatts out.
Proton – Boron fusion was mentioned, where the reaction between a proton and Boron produces Helium with no radioactivity. Dense plasma is focused in a unique device which produces the 1 billion degrees necessary to make Hydrogen and Boron fuse together into Helium without high energy neutrons being released. A garage-sized fusion reactor would produce energy ten times better than the Tokamak Reactor currently does. (See
ExtraOrdinary Technology Conference 2004 > Tom Valone, PhD, Speaks on Zero-point Energy Extraction from the Quantum Vacuum - Reviews the scientific literature on ZPE with emphasis on how molecular science is enabling the detection of ZPE. (July 30, 2004)
-- Provided as a public service fromwww.IntegrityResearchInstitute.org . Your support is desired and appreciated.