Can he walk the walk (II)

Manzur Ejaz, Ph. D.


It was reported in the last column that the international agencies or the donor agencies, the expression likened by these organization, have appreciated what Mr. Nawaz has said so far. Nevertheless, the managers handling Pakistan affairs at these institutions are, mostly, old hands and can justifiably be cynical and affected by the syndrome "have heard this all...have been there." Irrespective of their doubts, quite contrary to the common belief in Pakistan, these managers will be exhilarated if the new Prime Minister can raise enough resources to retire debt, put the economy back on the track and, most of all, transform Pakistan into a credit worthy country that does not reneging on its commitments. After all, its makes their job easy and, in turn they can get easy promotions. Nonetheless, to be convinced of the sincerity of the claims by the new government, they will be watching if he can"walk the walk"

Prime Minister was on the mark when in questioning the super managers at home, incharge of the loan process, to show the nation as to where and how the borrowed funds were spent. Even if one assumes, a common practice, that the international credit and donor agencies are there to get Pakistan as a grand international conspiracy, who was facilitating these evil designs at home? Matter of the fact is that Pakistan's ruling elites, bureaucrats, politicians, business owners et ell, have been eagerly seeking (rather kniving for) these loans, knowing fully well that, ultimately, the borrowed amounts will end up in their personal accounts. That is what happened. However, when they had appropriated most of the incoming finances and the country got a short shrift from abroad, the same elites started making mock attacks against IMF and the World Bank. The press played along, due to its self interest, anti-colonialist mid-set and also due to lack of analysis.

International agencies are not exonerated either. IMF, World Bank and other agencies can be rightfully blamed for continue lending, knowing well where these loans were going. Some of the managers might have refused the loans but, again, Pakistan is a member of these organizations and cannot be denied privileges that are available to other countries. The matter is quite complex. These institutions are not absolutely free to say no to one country. It is also true that the economic policies (paradigms ) devised by these organizations created certain problems for which they should have taken responsibility. Nevertheless, Pakistan is a sovereignty country and responsible for accepting or rejecting the loans and conditionalities attached with them. Moreover, it should be kept in mind that IMF, World Bank and other international agencies act like any other creditor who tries to safeguard its investments.

The conditionalities imposed, particularly, by the IMF were aimed to keep the Pakistani economy afloat--that can generate enough foreign exchange to pay its debts back. Most of the austerity programs and push for restructuring the economy were not bad per se. As a matter of fact many programs would have helped to make the economy efficient by downsizing the bloated sate and semi-state agencies and increase the revenue generation. Instead of restructuring the economic system, particularly, streamlining and breading the revenue generation system, Pakistan's ruling elites, deceitfully, passed the burden on to the lower strata through indirect taxes.

When low income consumers were pushed to the wall, the ruling elites started blaming the IMF for all the ills. It was readily accepted by the common person who is conditioned to find fault with the West-based organization (sometimes rightly so). IMF, or no IMF, Pakistan's economy has to be sound and credit worthy to stand in this competitive world economic environment. Nonetheless, if the government can put the economy back on the track, IMF, as a creditor will be trigger happy. In the meanwhile, they will be watching closely Prime Minister's "walk" along with his "talk". Most probably, they will be looking for the following changes:

(1) While appreciating Prime Minister's drive for raising funds for the debt retirement, they know it is a one time shot. Therefore, only long-term changes will bring the deficit down and convince the cynics. It means (a) the non-developmental expenditures are reduced to the minimum through downsizing and privatization (b) the existing industries are working smoothly (c) the new investment, in private sector, is taking place (d) if the financial institutions are made viable by gaining necessary autonomy and recovering the towering amounts from the defaulters and (e) the tax collection system is broadened and made efficient.

(2) For rehabilitating the agricultural sector, they will see (a) the irrigation system is rescued from its present disastrous condition by generating the enough resources (from users) to meet its operation and maintenance cost (b) unnecessary subsidies are slashed back and the necessary help reaches those who need the most (not the feudal) and (c) a meaningful land reforms can be constituted.

(3) To improve the human capital, it will be observed if the new government is allocating more resources for education and health.

(3) On political level it will be seen (a) the horse-trading prevalent in previous governments does not recur (b) the culture of corruption is eradicated and (c) political expediency does not hinder the rational process of economic decision making.

(4) Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's recurring tendencies to enforce the populist programs (yellows, motorways etc) versus economic resources will be watched very closely. No one disagrees with the improvement of infrastructure, but the question will be the mode of financing these projects. If it is done through borrowing (by increasing deficits), the opinions will turn negative.

Every one agrees that the new Prime Minister has a tough job at hand--satisfying his constituencies within given economic resources--but someone has to do it. So while everyone liking his "talk" is waiting to see how far he "walks the walk."