FUTURE OF THE U.S.: You Be the Judge...

In 1995, I laid out a scenario--a story about a possible way in which the future could develop--explaining how the U.S. might enter a period of decline. This scenario included not only the imaginary story of a possible future but also identified some of the drivers (key factors) and milestones (developments that could be expected to occur along the way). Now that time has passed, it is possible to evaluate whether or not events are proceeding as outlined in that scenario. You be the judge...


Factors Affecting Future of U.S.
U.S. Success..........U.S. Decline
Multilateral CooperationZero-Sum Competition
Rich, Friendly Third World MarketPoor, Alienated Aid Recepient
Cultural Receptivity By U.S.America-Firster Isolationism

Are We Passing These Milestones?
Milestones
If "drivers" are the underlying factors from which alternative scenarios are constructed, the "milestones" are the actual events that reveal which scenario is coming true. In the 1995 article, I identified several milestones which would, if they occurred in the future, corroborate the scenario's hypothesis, i.e., that the U.S. was beginning to decline. These milestones included:
  • US refusal to engage in peacekeeping
  • collapse of Mexico into narco- or rightist dictatorship.
  • the U.S. drops out of the U.N.


Home
Publications on the Future