Historical Analysis

Han and Tang China stand with the Roman empire in the minds of modern men as the standards of imperial hegemony. The Latin and Chinese "international political systems" at their heights--second century B.C. Republican Rome, the first century of the Former Han, the first century of the Later Han, the first century of Tang--provide examples of systems that appeared destined to survive forever. In contrast, the history of these systems also contains earthshaking events that generated stresses of the most fundamental kind--the collapse into chaos and civil war, invasions, and fundamental shifts in style, reach, and quality of government at the end of the Han, Tang, and Western Roman empire.



Mistakes in History
Hubris "the fatal obstinacy of the emperor[Valens] and the flattery of some of his courtiers" provoked a battle with the Visigoths whom the Romans had allowed to cross the Danube in order to "prevent Gratian [nephew of Valens and successful general] sharing in a victory which in their opinion was already as good as won." [Ammianus Marcellinus, The Later Roman Empire (AD 354-378), Tr. Walter Hamilton (Penguin Books, London, 1986), 433.]
Corruption "All of them competed in the building of their mansions with splendour and extravagance. Even their servants and retainers rode in carriages drawn by oxen [like imperial officials] and were attended by troops of cavalry. Their brothers and relatives by marriage were given power over provinces and the government of commanderies, and they exploited and oppressed the common people like robbers. Their tyranny covered all the empire. It was more than the people could bear, and many of them turned to banditry."[Sima Guang, Comprehensive Mirror to Aid in Government, Ch. 54, as translated by Rafe de Crespigny on 222.anu.edu.au/asianstudies/decrespigny/HuanLing_part2.pdf).]
Popular Complacency "Augustus was sensible that mankind is governed by names; nor was he deceived in his expectation, that the senate and people would submit to slavery, provided they were respectfully assured that they still enjoyed their ancient freedom."[Edward Gibbon, Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (New York: Alfred A. Knoph, 1993), V. III,52).]
Incompetence "The critical situation resulting from the opening of our frontier and the eruption of armed men from the barbarian lands like lava from Etna called for generals of the highest distinction, but by some unfavourable dispensation of providence men of flawed character were collected and put in command....Their sinister greed was the source of all our troubles."[Marcellinus,417.>
Militarization Analyzing the causes of the collapse of the Roman Republic, Plutarch describes its feuding generals, such as Marius and Sulla, as "men who had risen to the top by violence rather than by merit; they needed private armies to fight against one another rather than against the public enemy; and so they were forced to combine the arts of the politician with the authority of the general. They spent money on making life easy for their soldiers and then, after purchasing their labour in this way, failed to observe that they had made their whole country a thing for sale and had put themselves in a position where they had to be the slaves of the worst sort of people in order to become the masters of the better."[Plutarch, Fall of the Roman Republic, translated by Rex Warner (London: Penguin Books, 1958), 82.]




For a discussion of how to analyze political mistakes that contributed to the collapse of historical empires, see "Diagnosing Ancient Political Systems," which applies political science methodology to history.



For case studies demonstrating how some of the analytical methods developed in the above article might be applied to history, see Case Studies in History: Han Dynasty China, which applies selected methods to Han relations with neighboring populations Case Studies in History: Algeria, 1991.



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