Future Analysis
"Future Analysis" is an article presented at the International Studies Association 2007 convention.
Abstract
History may not repeat, but historical patterns do. Therefore, although the future may be unpredictable, it can definitely be analyzed. If given analytical substance by integrating the causal dynamics underlying the scenarios, scenario analysis becomes a thought-provoking analytical tool. Applying this methodology to a theoretical international political system described by three drivers of behavior-conflict-resolution strategy, attitude of allies, and attitude of adversaries-reveals a rich array of potential future behavior and the conditions likely to provoke it. The system is defined as comprised of nation-states plus an extremist group that aspires to overthrow the system and is thus designed to provide a foundation for analyzing many contemporary global political problems.
For full the text of "Future Analysis," see ISA website or contact me.
Future Analysis: Cycle of Extremism
discusses how extremism on one side can provoke extremism on the other side, generating a "cycle of extremism" that can feed on itself.
Future Analysis: Fixes that Fail
discusses how the classic dynamic of a fix that fails can create a spiral to war.
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