(Number) Crunch time has arrived!
By Sheldon Shealer
This week, we'll go class-by-class (again), and figure out who's in, who's out and who's clinging on a possible playoff spots.
Thanks to our internet buddy -- Neutral Observer, whose calculations were far more quicker and accurate than mine -- I'll spell out the likely scenarios in each classification. I'll base all predictions, not on opinion, but rather assuming the team with the better record will win. (Which, of course, is not ALWAYS the case.)
Class 4A
Bank on It -- Now that Suitland and Sherwood have lost, it guarantees that for the eighth time in 11 years 4A will not have an undefeated state champion.
What to Watch For -- The possibilities for the at-large teams appear to be endless, and it could come down to one bonus point here or there for the No. 8 spot between Old Mill and Damascus -- assuming all the favorites win. A loss by Parkdale, Northwestern-PG or Old Mill allows Damascus to get into the playoffs. Patterson, Flowers and Largo still have outside shots at a playoff berth.
Projected Region Champs -- North: Woodlawn; South: Suitland; East: Broadneck; West: Gaithersburg
Projected Wild Cards -- Sherwood, Parkdale, Northwestern-PG, Old Mill
Likely First-round matchups -- No. 8 Old Mill at No. 1 Gaithersburg; No. 7 Northwestern-PG at No. 2 Suitland; No. 6 Parkdale at No. 3 Broadneck; No. 5 Sherwood at No. 4 Woodlawn.
Class 3A
Bank on It -- The West and East regions will comprise six of the eight playoff teams. From the West it could be as many as three from the following: Linganore, Northwest, Richard Montgomery, Seneca Valley, Urbana. The East also gets three teams -- Annapolis, Gwynn Park and Wilde Lake, but Severna Park is also a possibility.
What to Watch For -- The Calvert-Northern Calvert rivalry takes on new meaning this week since the winner takes the region and a playoff spot while the loser is out. There is also a wild race for the West title and the last two spots, and it comes down to five West region teams -- Northwest, Linganore, Seneca Valley, Richard Montgomery and Urbana. Linganore wins the West with a victory over Urbana, which is certainly not a given, and a loss to Northwest. If Linganore loses, Northwest is the region champ, and the Lancers are eliminated. Then the race for the final two spots, if Linganore loses, comes down to Urbana (which must defeat Linganore), Seneca Valley and RM. Seneca Valley and RM hold the upper hand and will be in with victories this week, but if either stumble, the Hawks will be in the running for a fifth straight state title. Severna Park is still in the playoff running, but needs a win over Annapolis to secure a spot.
Projected Region Champs -- North: Dundalk; South: Calvert; East: Annapolis; West: Northwest
Projected Wild Cards -- Gwynn Park, Wilde Lake, Linganore, Seneca Valley.
Likely First-round matchups -- No. 8 Seneca Valley at No. 1 Annapolis; No. 7 Linganore at No. 2 Dundalk; No. 6 Wilde Lake at No. 3 Northwest; No. 5 Gwynn Park at No. 4 Calvert.
Class 2A
Bank on It -- The Bayside gets two playoff teams in 2A for the first time ever.
What to Watch For -- All four region leaders could find themselves as wild cards under the right circumstances. But for the sake of argument, it looks like the South and East have the closest races. Southern-AA, with a win, will outpoint Potomac for the South title despite not finishing among the Top 8 teams. The East reace is interesting because Wicomico holds a slight lead over Decatur. Both teams should win this week, but Wicomico's situation is a little more of a concern. The Warriors' top two players are sitting out because of injury and two other players recently quit the team.
Projected Region Champs -- North: Edmondson; South: Southern-AA; East: Wicomico; West: Glenelg
Projected Wild Cards -- Hereford, City College, Stephen Decatur, Middletown
Likely First-round matchups -- No. 8 Middletown at No. 1. Edmondson; No. 7 Stephen Decatur at No. 2 Glenelg; No. 6 City College at No. 3 Wicomico; No. 5 Hereford at No. 4 Southern-AA.
Class 1A
Bank on It -- North East is in, even with a loss, and likely will lead a trio of Cecil County schools into the 1A playoffs.
What to Watch For -- The gap between No. 8 and No. 9 is so great, that
all eight playoff spots are pretty well secured. However, here's a wild one -- Havre
de Grace (4-5), currently ninth, could snatch the East title from CSD (7-2) if the
following happens: CSD must lose to Easton, which is possible, and Havre de Grace
must defeat Joppatowne, which is unlikely. Then the bonus points kick in. HdG likely
will receive four of a possible five bonus points. CSD gets one guaranteed bonus
point and likely one other out of a possible five. With a HdG win, HdG will range
between 56-61 points. CSD has 54 points now and is guaranteed only one bonus, so
their range, with a loss, is 55-60 points. Of course, if CSD wins, then there's no
reason crunching the numbers -- the Vikings will be in.
Projected Region Champs -- North: North East-Cecil; South: Dunbar; East: Cambridge-S.D.; West: Beall.
Projected Wild Cards -- Bohemia Manor, Elkton, South Hagerstown, Oakland Mills
Likely First-round matchups -- No. 8 Oakland Mills at No. 1 North East-Cecil; No. 7 South Hagerstown at No. 2 Dunbar; No. 6 Elkton at No. 3 Beall; No. 5 Bohemia Manor at No. 4 Cambridge-S.D.
POWER RATINGS
Here are the Massey rankings for the Week:
MASSEY HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL RATINGS
PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Towson's Joe Chatman rolled up a state-best 391 rushing yards with five touchdowns in the team's 49-14 victory over Chesapeake-BC. Chatman's total is the fourth-highest ever gained by a Maryland running back. As a side note, Marcus Mason broke the state's career rushing record and would have been an obvious choice for player of the Week, but since we already honored him this season, we went with Chatman.
IN CASE YOU WHERE WONDERING
Wicomico cracks the state poll for the first time ever at No. 22 this week. in doing so, the Indians become the first Bayside Conference team in the state poll since Week 6 of 1999, when Cambridge-South Dorchester held the No. 15 ranking. Now that the state ranking is secured, Wicomico, which hasn't lost a regular-season game to an MPSSAA school since 2000, is looking to end another Bayside drought -- this one in the playoffs. The Bayside has not won a postseason game in any class since 1999, and the last time a Bayside 2A school won a playoff game was CSD in 1994. Interestingly, there is a remote chance that Wicomico and Stephen Decatur could meet in the first round of the 2A playoffs -- which would guarantee a Bayside victory.
AROUND THE STATE (Week 9 Notes)
Georgetown Prep senior Marcus Mason broke the state's career rushing record with
a 234-yard effort against St. Stephen's/St. Agnes (Va.), giving the All-State back
5,627 career rushing yards. This week's Prep game against Bullis could be the season
finale for both teams. The loss of a game to the sniper attacks and since Mason sat
out with an injury, he likely will not become the state's first 6,000-yard rusher.
... There's no official state record for many defensive performances, largely because
the National Federation doesn't track such feats. That said, here's something that
should not go unnoticed. Bishop McNamara's Harold Stanback has 21 sacks this year
and 58 for his career, shattering the school record set by Tyoka Jackson. As a side
note, Jackson is in the NFL and played in last year's Super Bowl. ... Wilde Lake
coach Doug DuVall is going for win No. 250 this weekend. The veteran coach is second
among active coaches in Maryland and rates No. 4 all-time in victories.
STREAK BUSTERS
Southside Academy ended an eight-game slide and collected its first varsity win at the same time with a 39-0 victory over Mt. Zion. ... Suitland's nine-game win streak, dating to last season, ended in a 20-6 loss to Flowers. ... Annapolis' eight-game win streak was snapped in a 20-14 overtime loss to Old Mill. Sherwood's eight-game win streak ended in a 13-10 loss to Gaithersburg in a battle of Montgomery 4A powers. ... Bishop Walsh's seven-game win streak was brought to a crashing halt by Beall, 41-0. ... Frederick ended a five-game drought with a 21-20 win over Liberty. ... Northern Calvert's five-game win streak ended in a 20-6 loss to Thomas Stone. ... South River halted a seven-game losing streak with a 46-6 victory over North County. ... Thomas Wootton stopped a six-game slide with a 12-6 victory over Einstein. ... Walbrook's five-game win streak ended in a 22-8 loss to Patterson. ... Westlake's six-game win streak and its playoff hopes were dashed in a 31-14 loss to Chopticon.
LOOKING AHEAD
Northern Calvert at Calvert, Friday. At stake is the Class 3A South region title and a automatic playoff berth. The winner gets a home game in the Class 3A state quarterfinals. The loser simply gets to stay at home.
Severna Park at Annapolis, Friday: Annapolis is in the 3A playoffs regardless of this outcome. Severna Park, however, must win to give Anne Arundel County a pair of 3A playoff teams.
Linganore at Urbana, Saturday: This is clearly Game of the Week in Maryland. Two programs with great success, intertwined on so many levels, meet for the sixth time, and in the balance is a conference title and a possible playoff berth. A win by Linganore, coached by former Urbana assistant Rick Conner, secures a playoff spot for the Lancers. A victory by Urbana, coached by former Linganore head coach Dave Carruthers, keeps the Hawks in the running for a playoff spot. Linganore is the last MPSSAA school to pin a loss on Urbana, and that was in 1997. Oh, the story lines in this one keep on going!
A pair for perfection Saturday as No. 1 Gilman plays host to rival McDonogh and No. 2 Georgetown Prep plays host to No. 19 Bullis Prep. Gilman and Prep are looking to finish out their schedule with undefeated records.
Other Games of Note: Friday: Easton at Cambridge-S.D., Friendly at Bladensburg, J.M. Bennett at Wicomico, Middletown at Walkersville, Southside Academy at Century (start-up programs clash!), Westmar at Beall. Saturday: Allegany vs. Fort Hill, Flowers at Northwestern-PG, Frederick at Thomas Johnson (nothing at stake playoff-wise -- but I'll be making my 20th straight appearance at the Intra-City Game), Poly at City College.