The BCS comes to Maryland ... well, sort of
By Sheldon Shealer
As you can imagine, I receive a lot of e-mail requests regarding records, news, stats,
etc., etc., etc.
One e-mail, about two weeks ago, caught my attention. It was from Kenneth Massey, a graduate TA from Virginia Tech. His request seemed sort of "Hokie" (pardon the pun), he wanted EVERY score of EVERY game played in Maryland this year. I have the info, but sending it off is not easy to do, nor is it a practice I intend to continue. After all, I spend hours every week making sure I get every score, right down to Mount Zion! I'm not in the habit of just shipping off this info so that others can take advantage of my research for their gain.
That said, I struck up an e-mail correspondence with Massey, since I wanted to know why he wanted this information and what he intended on doing with it.
Then it dawned on me -- the Massey Ratings. ... Kenneth Massey. ... College football. ... BCS standings.
Yes, this is one in the same. Kenneth Massey's college football power ratings, which have been around since 1995, are one of the components in the Bowl Championship Series for college football. His latest project is applying his power ratings to high school football, specifically high school football in the Southeast, in which he includes Maryland (and oddly Ohio!).
This week, the info for Maryland is up and running for the first time, and will lead to plenty of debate.
Before you get totally worked up, please remember the following: A. the ratings reflect results of games played and are not a projection of future results; B. ratings will fluctuate significantly until there is a sufficient amount of data available (i.e., the later on in the season -- the more accurate the ratings); C. I don't have a thing to do with the ratings other than provide him with Maryland scores!
In his introduction to college football ratings, Massey sums it up perfectly with these two comments: "It has been my experience that a good model will correct itself, and provide remarkable insights long before a human will become aware of (and admit) his mistake. In general, it doesn't take long for computer ratings to overtake a human poll in terms of accuracy and fairness." AND "The public requests an objective system that plays no favorites and doesn't encourage a team to run up the score. However, they don't always agree with the inevitable consequences of such a system."
That being said, here are the Massey Ratings for high school football (Enjoy! There will be a permanent link on my site to the Massey Ratings later this week):
MASSEY HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL RATINGS
PLAYER OF THE WEEK
D'Angelo Goffigan, Joppatowne. A scat back normally doesn't need to touch the ball this often! Goffigan rushed a staggering 47 times -- tied for second all-time -- for 267 yards and three touchdowns in Joppatowne's 28-18 must-win over league rival Aberdeen. Goffigan, at 5-10, 170, is known more for his moves and ability to hit the hole. Monday night, he showed he can be a power back, as well. Joppatowne was in a must-win situation against a greatly improved Aberdeen team in order to remain in the 2A playoff hunt.
Here are the all-time single-game rushing attempt leaders:
53, Malcolm Ruff, Gilman vs. State College (Pa.), Nov. 3, 2000 (OT)
47, Kevin Flynn, Damascus vs. Seneca Valley, Oct. 20, 2000 (OT)
47, Dwight Lewis, North Hagerstown vs. Boonsboro, Oct. 30, 1992 (OT)
47, DíAngelo Goffigan, Joppatowne vs. Aberdeen, Oct. 21, 2002
IN CASE YOU WHERE WONDERING
If a third week of regular-season play is lost in parts of Maryland this week, it will mark the longest inseason delay in high school football history since the flu epidemic of 1918. Although schedules were shortened during World War II (many teams played only five or six games due to gas rationings), games were not scheduled and then canceled like this year. In 1918, a flu epidemic swept the nation and for nearly two months, many Maryland schools were closed and activities canceled. When school resumed in late October or November (depending on the area), several schools attempted to salvage their seasons. Here are two of the best stories from that year: Frederick High opted to play Mount St. Mary's College, which fielded a football program until the mid-1950s. Frederick was handed an 82-0 loss -- it still stands as the most lopsided loss in school history. In Hagerstown, St. James senior and team captain John Newman Jr. contacted St. Albans (D.C.) and arranged for the teams to play twice during the week of Thanksgiving. St. James, without a coach, swept the home-and-home series, winning 27-0 and 7-0.
AROUND THE STATE (Week 7 Notes)
With 25 percent of the teams not playing due to the sniper attacks, news and notes
(other than game rescheduling issues!) have become few and far between. Therefore,
I'll take some time to shed light on conferences that are often overshadowed by football
powers Montgomery and P.G. County. First, in the Bayside, Wicomico is ripping through
the conference and has not lost a league game since 2000. Yet, Wicomico might not
be the lone Bayside 2A team to make the playoffs. Decatur is 6-1 (losing already
to Wicomico) and is sitting is good position to snag an at-large spot. In the Bayside
1A, Cambridge-S.D. looks like a runaway winner in the both the league and East Region
races. ... As predicted in the preseason magazine, the Cecil County race would be
one of the best around. Four of the five teams had a legitimate shot at winning the
county title, and going into Week 8, those four teams are still in the running. In
fact, Bohemia Manor, Elkton, North East-Cecil and Rising Sun are a combined 21-5-1
on the field. (Rising Sun had to forfeit two games.) ... Harford County has provided
some of the most surprising league standings in recent years. In fact, there hasn't
been an outright back-to-back champion since the early 1990s. Entering Week 8, six
of the eight teams are within one game of first place. Edgewood, Joppatowne and Havre
de Grace all have one league loss. Three other teams have two league losses. The
biggest surprise in the county is C.M. Wright, which has secured an all-time worst
showing with its 0-7 start. In the preseason, several coaches thought the Mustangs
had the horses to make a title run following last year's JV championship squad. ...
Due to the day-to-day changes regarding this week's action, there's no point posting
an update in this week's notes because within 24 hours that information could be
no longer valid. Therefore, for up-to-the-minute information regarding the weekend
schedule, visit the football message board at MDVarsity.com.
STREAK BUSTERS
Calvert Hall's 21-14 setback to top-ranked Gilman ended a 10-game win streak, dating back to the team's last loss to Gilman. ... Lansdowne snapped a five-game losing streak with a 28-8 win over Sparrows Point. ... Parkside ended a five-game losing streak in a 28-0 victory over Kent Island.
LOOKING AHEAD
Assuming games are played as scheduled ...
Fort Hill at Martinsburg, W.Va., Friday. This storied rivalry dates back almost 70 years. Often, the CVAL championship was determined in this matchup, and this year should be no different. The high-scoring Bulldogs of Martinsburg are ranked in the Top 3 in West Virginia, but has yet to face an opponent of Fort Hill's quality. Fort Hill, meanwhile, could make a huge statement with a victory here as it rebounds from last year's 3-7 showing. Major bonus points are on the table if the Sentinels can pull out the victory.
Boys' Latin at Calvert Hall, Saturday. BL, led by 6-5 QB Pat Mahoney, is off to a surprising 6-0 start but faces its toughest challenge of the season in Calvert Hall. If Boys' Latin can win this game, they likely would earn a state Top 25 ranking and a perfect season would be very possible. Otherwise, a Calvert Hall victory would just reinforce the MIAA A Conference's domination of its B and C Conference foes. Right now, the A Conference is 4-1 vs. the rest of the MIAA.
Flowers at Suitland, Saturday. Flowers, in its second season, has won three of four games this season after only one win in 2001. Suitland would be putting its undefeated record on the line against its sixth state-ranked opponent this year. Of course, there is no guarantee this game will be played this weekend. Both teams have been idle the past two weeks due to the sniper attacks.
Other Games of Note: Friday: Bohemia Manor at Rising Sun; Boonsboro at Middletown; Calvert at Patuxent; Keyser, W.Va., at Allegany; Linganore at Westminster; Magruder at Damascus; Sherwood at Walt Whitman. Saturday: Gonzaga at Bishop McNamara; Largo at Eleanor Roosevelt; Woodlawn at Dundalk.