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Can Computers "Think"?
As part of studies on emerging technologies, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C., conducted a unique and important Delphi Technology Survey to assess opinions on intelligent computers.
This Survey requested YOUR opinion of this classic and very current question. The results were compiled and returned to respondents to obtain a consensus.
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The pioneers of computer science have often had strong opinions on the ability of the computer to "think", and the prospects of permitting this to happen.
Dr John von Neumann considered it feasible that computers could actually self-replicate. That is, they could create other computers, perhaps unlike themselves.
Dr Norbert Wiener likened the computer to a "golem", an artificial yet dangerous man made of clay and brought to life by the incantations of magic.
Dr Alan Turing devised a test to determine if a computer could "think". He said, essentially, that if a person could ask a question of a computer, and receive a response that he could not differentiate from a human response, then that computer could "think".
1. About when do you believe that computers will be able to "think", about when will this be commonplace?
| When | Percent |
|---|---|
| Now: | 17.0 |
| 2000 | 02.0 |
| 2005 | 07.5 |
| 2010 | 19.0 |
| 2015 | 11.0 |
| 2020 | 04.0 |
| Later | 21.0 |
2. Do you believe computers today can "think" under Turing's definition?
| Yes | 28.3% |
| No | 71.7% |
3. Do you believe computers will ever be able to "think"?
| Yes | 71.7% |
| No | 23.8% |
4. Would you be comfortable having a "thinking" computer work for you?
| Yes | 77.4% |
| No | 22.6% |
5. Would you be comfortable working for a "thinking" computer?
| Yes | 34.0% |
| No | 66.0% |
6. Your Education is
mean: 17.2 Years of formal education
7. Your Age is
| Group | Percent |
|---|---|
| <20 | 34.8 |
| 21-30 | 30.4 |
| 31-40 | 13.0 |
| 41-50 | 17.4 |
| 51-60 | 02.2 |
| 61-70 | 02.2 |
8. Your Gender is
| Male | 76.1% |
| Female | 23.9% |
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Alan Turing has several very rich sites devoted to his interests. In addition to those cited above, we also recommend Oxford University's Virtual Museum of Computing.
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