Promotion Policy Simulator

This is a simulation that may be utilized for better understanding the dynamics involved with retaining and promoting personnel. In this simulation personnel move through a pipeline (depicted below) into Junior, Mid Level, and Senior "pools."


Starting personnel levels are 200 juniors, 50 mid levels, and 10 seniors.

Approximately 80% of the individuals in the junior pool now leave each year. Juniors are promoted to mid level after they have been with the organization 3 years. Juniors may receive an annual bonus, but the firm has found that even large bonuses have little effect on retaining them. New juniors are hired each year equal to the number of juniors, Mid Level and seniors leaving.

The promotion time from mid to senior level is 7 years. Additionally the numbers of mid level personnel who stay are heavily influenced by annual bonuses they receive which may range from 0 to $25,000.

Seniors retire on average after 10 years in a senior slot. Because they receive a cut of the business profits, they are not eligible for bonuses like the junior and mid level personnel.


As part of the simulation you may change the average length of time for:

a) promotion from Junior to mid level
b) promotion from mid level to Senior
c) retention of seniors
You may also change bonuses awarded d) juniors and e) Mid Level.

Tasking (estimated time for completion 30 minutes):

As a member of the Senior partner committee you have been assigned to take a look at personnel levels and formulate a policy with respect to promotion and retention over the next 20 years. You will need to start by running the simulation to view how many personnel will likely be in the various levels if current policies remain in place Continue by answering the additional questions for the senior partner.

1. Given the present policies and dynamics, how many seniors will be in the organization five, ten, fifteen and twenty years from now?

2. When and how much would you change the mid-to senior and/or the junior-to-mid promotion time to increase the number of seniors from current levels by 2 to 3 times current levels in out year 10?

How would you accomplish this same objective, but by also keeping the mid level personnel at their current levels?

3. Formulate a combination of controls to maintain stability in personnel levels at approximately current levels.