Abstract

Forging a New Nuclear Policy Dialog Through System Dynamics-Based Modeling Workshops. Dr. Victor Reis, Director, Nuclear Strategies Project. Dr. R. Evan Ellis. Senior Analyst, Science Applications International Corporation. The end of the Cold War, the restructuring of the world's energy industry, and increased environmental concerns has created a critical need for a new, active approach to understanding options for the future of the global nuclear enterprise: nuclear power, nuclear materials, and nuclear weapons. The Nuclear Strategies Project is currently using system-dynamics-based influence diagramming, model building and gaming to foster a fundamentally new type of dialog between policymakers and subject-matter experts on the multifaceted nuclear enterprise. This presentation will discuss the work of the Nuclear Strategies Project to date, including the proceedings from its first workshop. The combination of influence diagrams, high-level models, and detailed models in the workshop to achieve both flexibility and detailed policy analysis will also be discussed.