(Roland Carter and James Frank)

CALIBRE Systems Inc

5111 Leesburg Pike, Suite 514

Falls Church, VA 22041

(703) 845-1000

Email: jfrank@calibresys.com

The POM Execution Assessment Tool (PEAT) uses Systems Thinking methodology and the ithink software to simulate the execution of POM resources in order to predict the resultant impact on programmed performance measures. The PEAT simulation is built to focus on the complex interrelationships and causal feedback loops in the processes that support and produce a trained and ready Army. These processes include MANNING, TRAINING, EQUIPMENT READINESS, MODERNIZATION & DEPOT MAINTENANCE, and the phenomenon of MIGRATION.

The presentation will demonstrate how Systems Thinking has been applied within the Office of the Chief of Staff of the Army, Program Analysis and Evaluation Directorate (PAED) to develop a decision support tool to assist in resource decision making for the Army POM process. The goal is to enhance PAED’s ability to work with staff functional experts to build an integrated POM and perform quick turnaround analysis of alternative funding excursions in order to support informed decision making.

PEAT is a desktop simulation tool developed to assess the risk posed to programmed performance measures by various resource scenarios. An example of PEAT’s utility can be demonstrated using readiness performance measures. Traditionally, the Army staff has programmed resources to fully meet the readiness requirements of the force. If executed as programmed, these funds will produce performance measures that reflect the goals and expectations of the Army for the readiness of its units. However, as funds move from programming into the budget and eventually into execution, not all funds that are programmed for readiness accounts are actually executed in those accounts. This phenomenon, known as migration, results in the movement of money away from direct readiness accounts like OPTEMPO and the Flying Hour Program into accounts which are critical but not directly reported in current readiness metrics. Examples of these accounts are Base Operations, Real Property Maintenance, and Information Management. In past POM builds, PAED has been unable to quantify the impacts on readiness that are likely to occur in execution when migration occurs. PEAT allows PAED, in the programming phase of PPBES, to simulate the execution of a resource distribution scenario and assess the impact that will occur in readiness. This allows POM builders and decision makers to make resource decisions with an estimate of what the ultimate impact will be on readiness performance measures.